Bayes and the Law: References

Books

Adam, C., Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science 2010, Chichester, John Wiley & Sons.

Aitken, C.G.G. and Taroni, F., Statistics and the evaluation of evidence (2nd Edition). 2004,  Chichester, John Wiley & Sons.

Aitken, C.G.G., Statistics and the evaluation of evidence. 1995,  Chichester, John Wiley & Sons.

Anderson, T., D. A. Schum and W. Twining (2005). Analysis of Evidence, Cambridge University Press.

Balding, D. J. Weight-of-Evidence for Forensic DNA Profiles, 2005, Wiley.

Buckleton, J., C. M. Triggs and S. J. Walsh, Forensic DNA Evidence Interpretation, 2005, CRC Press.

Endres, A. and D. Rombach, A Handbook of Software and Systems Engineering: Empirical Observations, Laws and Theories, 2003, Addison Wesley.

Evett, I. W. and B. S. Weir (1998). Interpreting DNA evidence : statistical genetics for forensic scientists, Sinauer Associates.

Finkelstein, M. O. and B. A. Levin (2001). Statistics for Lawyers, Springer.

Fenton, N.E. and M. Neil (2012), Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks.  2012, CRC Press, ISBN: 9781439809105 , ISBN 10: 1439809100, 2012 see http://www.bayesianrisk.com/

Fraser, J. and R. Williams, Eds. (2009). Handbook of Forensic Science. Portland, Oregon, Willan Publishing.

Freckelton, I. and H. Selby (2005). Expert Evidence: Law, Practice, Procedure and Advocacy. Australia, Lawbook Co.

Gastwirth, J. L., Ed. (2000). Statistical Science in the Courtroom. New York, Springer-Verlag.

Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty. London, Penguin Books.

Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., and Kahneman, D., Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. . 2002, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.   

Glymour, C. (2001). The Mind's Arrows: Bayes Nets and Graphical Causal Models in Psychology. Cambridge, MA: , The MIT Press.

Good, P. I. (2001). Applying Statistics in the Courtroom: A New Approach for Attorneys and Expert Witnesses, CRC Press.

Goodwin, W., A. Linacre and S. Hadi (2007). An Introduction to Forensic Genetics, John Wiley and Sons.

Honess, T.M., Levi, M., and Charunan, E.A., Juror competence in process complex information: implications from a simulation of the Maxwell trial. 1998.

Kadane, J. B. and Schum, D. A. (1996). A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence, John Wiley & Sons

Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A., Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. 1982: New York: Cambridge University Press.   

Lagnado, D. (2010). Thinking about evidence.

Langford, A., J. Dean, et al. (2005). Practical Skills in Forensic Science. Harlow, Pearson.

Law, D. (1988). Methods for Comparing Methods.

Lucy, D. (2006). Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists. Chichester, UK, John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

McCartney, C. (2006). Forensic Identification And Criminal Justice: Forensic Science, Justice and Risk, Willan Publishing.

Meyer, C (1998) Expert Witnessing; Explaining and Understanding Science, CRC Press

Murphy, P. (2003). Evidence, Proof, and Facts: A Book of Sources, Oxford University Press.

Nickerson, R. S. (2004). Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning, Lawrence Erlbaum.

Paulos, J. A. (1995). A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper.

Piatelli-Palmarini, M. (1994). Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Rae, Robert, A. P. and Hausen (1995). Software Evaluation for Certification: Principles, Practice and Legal Liability. McGraw Hill, International Software Quality Assurance Series, London.

Redmayne, M. (2001). Expert Evidence and Criminal Justice, Oxford University Press.

Robertson, B. and Vignaux, T., Interpreting Evidence: Evaluating Forensic Science in the Courtroom. 1995: John Wiley and Son Ltd.   

Saks, M.J. and Thompson, W.C., Assessing Evidence: Proving Facts, in Handbook of Psychology in Legal Contexts (Second Edition), Carson, D. and Bull, R., Editors. 2003.

Taroni, F., Aitken, C., Garbolino, P., and Biedermann, A., Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science           2006: John Wiley & Sons. 

Twining, W., P. Dawid and M. Vasilaki, Eds. (2011). Evidence, Inference and Enquiry, The British Academy.

White, P. C., Ed. (2004). Crime Scene to Court: Essentials of Forensic Science, Royal Society of Chemistry.

Wigmore, J. (1937). The Science of Proof: as Given by Logic, Psychology and General Experience and Illustrated in Judicial Trials. Boston, Little Brown.

Woffinden B., Miscarriages of Justice, Hodder and Stoughton, 1988

 

Published journal articles

Aitken, C. and Gammerman, A., Probabilistic reasoning in evidential assessment. Journal of the Forensic Science Society, 1989. 29: p. 303-316.

Aitken, C., Lies, damned lies and expert witnesses. Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA), 1996. 32(5/6): p. 76-80.

Aitken, C., Taroni, F., and Garbolino, P., A graphical model for the evaluation of cross-transfer evidence in DNA profiles. Theoretical Population Biology, 2003. 63: p. 179-190.

Aitken, C. G. G., T. Connolly, et al. (1995), ’Bayesian belief networks with an application in specific case analysis’ in A. Gammerman (ed), Computational Learning and Probabilistic Reasoning,  John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Aitken, C. G. G., T. Connolly, et al. (1996). "Statistical modelling in specific case analysis" Science & Justice: 36(4): 245-255.

Aitken, C. G. G. (2000). Interpretation of evidence, and sample size determination. Statistical SCience in the Courtroom. J. L. Gastwirth. New York, Springer: 1-24.

Allen, R. J. and J. S. Miller (1993). "The Common Law Theory of Experts: Deference or Education?" Northwestern Law Review 87: 1131-1147.

Ask, K. and Granhag, P.A., Motivational sources of confirmation bias in criminal investigations: the need for cognitive closure. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 2005. 2(1): p. 43-63. 

Bahrami, H. (2006). "Causal models in primary open angle glaucoma." Ophthalmic Epidemiol 13(4): 291-8.

Balding, D.J. and Donnelly, P., Evaluating DNA profile evidence when the suspect is identified through a database search, in Journal of Forensic Science 41, 599-603. 1996.

Balding, D. J. and P. Donnelly (1994). "How convincing is DNA evidence?" Nature 368(6469): 285-6.

Balding, D.J. and Donnelly, P., Prosecutor's fallacy and DNA evidence, in Criminal Law Review, 711-722. 1994.

Banker, R. D., H. Chang and C. F. Kemerer (1994). Evidence on economies of scale in software development. Information and Software Tech 36 (5) pp 275-282.

Bar-Hillel, M. (1980). "The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments." Acta Psychologica 44: 211-233.

Berger, C.E.H. Criminalistics is reasoning backwards. NJB 2010, 85, 784-789..

Berger, C.E.H. The right weight in the scales of justice. Ars Aequi, 2010, 499-501.

Berger, C. E. H., J. Buckleton, et al. (2011). "Evidence evaluation: A response to the court of appeal judgement in R v T." Science and Justice 51: 43-49.

Berry, D. (2008). "The science of doping." Nature 454: 692-693.

Berry, D. A. (1994). "DNA, Statistics, and the Simpson Case." Chance: New Directions Statistics and Computing 7(4): 9-12.

Bex, F., S. van den Braak, et al. (2007). "Sense-making software for crime investigation: how to combine stories and arguments?" Law, Probability & Risk 6: 145-168.

Bex, F. J., P. J. van Koppen, H. Prakken and B. Verheij (2010). "A Hybrid Formal Theory of Arguments, Stories and Criminal Evidence " Artificial Intelligence and Law 18(2): 123-152.

Biedermann, A., F. Taroni, et al. (2005). "The evaluation of evidence in the forensic investigation of fire incidents. Part II. Practical examples of the use of Bayesian networks." Forensic Science International 147(1): 59-69.

Birckmayer, J. D., H. D. Holder, G. S. Yacoubian, Jr. and K. B. Friend (2004). "A general causal model to guide alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug prevention: assessing the research evidence." J Drug Educ 34(2): 121-53.

Blackburn, J. D., G. D. Scudder and L. N. vanWassenhove (1996). Improving speed and productivity of software development: a global survey of software developers. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 22(12), 875-885.

Buckleton, J. S., S. Walsh and S. A. Harbison (2001). "The fallacy of independence testing and the use of the product rule." Sci Justice 41(2): 81-84.

Carter, J. F., R. Sleeman and J. Parry (2003). "The distribution of controlled drugs on banknotes via counting machines  " Forensic Science International 132 106-112.

Casscells, W., A. Schoenberger and T. B. Graboys (1978). "Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory results." New England Journal of Medicine 299 999-1001.

Cosmides, L. and J. Tooby (1996). "Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty." Cognition 58 1-73.

Cowell, R., S. Lauritzen and J. Mortera (2006). "Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information." Forensic Science International 166(1): 28-34.

Cowell, R. G. (2003). "Finex: a Probabilistic Expert System for forensic identification." Forensic Science International 134(2): 196-206.

Cowell, R. G., S. L. Lauritzen and J. Mortera (2011). "Probabilistic expert systems for handling artifacts in complex DNA mixtures." Forensic Science International:Genetics 5(3): 202-209.

Coyle, T. (2010). ‘Trace and Contact Evidence’ in P. C. White, Crime Scene to Court: Essentials of Forensic Science (Royal Society of Chemistry).

Darroch, J. (1987). "Probability and criminal trials: some comments prompted by the Splatt trial and the Royal Commission." Professional Statistican 6: 3-7.

Dawid, P., Statistics on Trial. Significance, 2005. 2(1): p. 6-8. 10.1111/j.1740-9713

Dawid, A. P., J. Mortera and P. Vicard (2007). "Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems." Forensic Science International 169: 195-205.

Dawid, A. P. (2002). Bayes’s theorem and weighing evidence by juries. In Bayes’s Theorem: Proceedings of the British Academy. R. Swinburne. Oxford, Oxford University Press. 113: 71-90.

Dawid, A. P. and I. W. Evett (1997). "Using a graphical model to assist the evaluation of. complicated patterns of evidence." Journal of Forensic Sciences 42: 226-231.

Donnelly, P. (2005). "Appealing Statistics." Significance 2(1): 46-48.

Dror, I.E. and Charlton, D., Why experts make errors. Journal of Forensic Identification, 2006. 56(4): p. 600-616.

Dror, I. E., D. Charlton and A. Peron (2006). "Contextual information renders experts vulnerable to making erroneous identifications." Forensic Science International 156 (1): 74-78.

Dror, I. E. and G. Hampikian (2011). "Subjectivity and bias in forensic DNA mixture interpretation." Science & Justice:.

Ebejer, K. A., G. R. Lloyd, et al. (2007). "Factors influencing the contamination of UK banknotes with drugs of abuse " Forensic Science International 171.

Ebejer, K. A., J. Winn, et al. (2007). "The difference between drug money and a lifetime's savings?" Forensic Science International 167: 94-101.

Edmond, G. (2002). "Constructing Miscarriages of Justice: Misunderstanding Scientific Evidence in High Profile Criminal Appeals." Oxford Journal of Legal Studies 22(1): 53-89.

Edwards, W. (1991). "Influence Diagrams, Bayesian Imperialism, and the Collins case: an appeal to reason." Cardozo Law Review 13: 1025-1079.

Evett, I. W. (1995). "Avoiding the transposed conditional." Science and Justice 35(3): 127-131.

Evett, I. W., L. A. Foreman, G. Jackson and J. A. Lambert (2000). "DNA profiling: a discussion of issues relating to the reporting of very small match probabilities." Criminal Law Review May: 341-355.

Evett, I. W., P. D. Gill, et al. (2002). "Interpreting small quantities of DNA: the hierarchy of propositions and the use of Bayesian networks." Journal of Forensic Sciences 47(3): 520-530.

Evett, I. W., G. Jackson, D. V. Lindley and D. Meuwly (2006). "Logical evaluation of evidence when a person is suspected of committing two separate offences." Science and Justice 46(1): 25-31.

Faigman, D.L. and Baglioni, A.J., Bayes' theorem in the trial process. Law and Human Behavior, 1988. 12(1): p. 1-17. 

Falmagne, J. C. and L. Narens (1983). Scales and meaningfulness of quantitative laws. Synthese, 55, 287--325.

Fenton, N. and Neil, M., The Jury Fallacy and the use of Bayesian nets to simplify probabilistic legal arguments. Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA), 2000. 36(6): p. 180-187.

Fenton, N. and Neil, M, (2011). 'Avoiding probabilistic fallacies in legal practice using Bayesian Networks', Australian Journal of Legal Philosophy 36, pp 114-150 (draft of paper here https://www.eecs.qmul.ac.uk/~norman/papers/fenton_neil_prob_fallacies_June2011web.pdf)

Fienberg, S. (1990). Legal Likelihoods and A Priori Assessments: What Goes Where? Bayesian and Likelihood Methods in Statistics and Econometrics (Essays in Honor of George A. Barnard). S. Geisser, J. S. Hodges, S. J. Press and A. Zellner, North-Holland: 141-162.

Fienberg, S. E. (2006). "Does it Make Sense to be an "Objective Bayesian"? (Comment on Articles by Berger and by Goldstein)." Bayesian Analysis 1(3): 429-432.

Fienberg, S. E. and J. B. Kadane (1983). "The presentation of Bayesian statistical analysis in legal proceedings." The Statistician 32: 88.

Fienberg, S. E. and M. J. Schervish (1986). "Relevance of Bayesian Inference for the Presentation of Statistical Evidence and for Legal Decisionmaking, The Symposium." Boston University Law Review 66: 771-798.

Fienberg, S. E. and M. L. Straf (1991). "Statistical Evidence in the US Courts: An Appraisal." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 154(1): 49-59.

Finkelstein, M. O. and W. B. Fairley (1970). "A Bayesian Approach to Identification Evidence." Harvard Law Review 83(3 ): 489-517.

Finney, K., N. Fenton and A. Fedorec (1999). "Effects of structure on the comprehensibility of formal specifications." IEE Proceedings in Software 146(4): 193-202.

Foreman, L. A., C. Champod, et al. (2003). "Interpreting DNA Evidence: A Review." Internat. Statist. Rev. 71(3): 473-495.

Forrest, A. R. (2003). "Sally Clark - a lesson for us all." Science & Justice: 43: 63-64.

Fox, J. (2011).’Arguing about the evidence: a logical approach’ in W. Twining, P. Dawid and M. Vasilaki, Evidence, Inference and Enquiry. OUP, 2011

Franklin, J (2010), "Feature selection methods for solving the reference class problem", Columbia Law Review Sidebar, Mar 2010 pdf here

Franklin, J (2011), 'The objective Bayesian conceptualisation of proof and reference class problems', Sydney Law Review 33 (2011), 545-61.
pdf here

Fugelsang, J. A. and V. A. Thompson (2003). "A dual-process model of belief and evidence interactions in causal reasoning." Mem Cognit 31(5): 800-15.

Garbolino, P. and F. Taroni (2002). "Evaluation of scientific evidence using Bayesian networks." Forensic Sci. Int. 125 149-155.

Gastwirth, J. L. (2005). "Some issues arising in the presentation of statistical testimony." Law, Probability & Risk 4: 5-20.

Giannelli, P. C. (2007). "Confirmation Bias." Criminal Justice 22(3): 60-61.

Gigerenzer, G. (1996). "On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996)." Psychological Review 103(3): 592-596.

Gilthorpe, M., I. Maddick and A. Petrie (2000). "Introduction to Bayesian modelling in dental research." Community Dent Health 17(4): 218-21

Glendinning, P. (2009). "View from the Pennines: Beyond a Reasonable Doubt." Mathematics Today (Bulletin of the IMA) 120: 119-120.

Goldman, A. I. (2003). "Simple heuristics and legal evidence." Law, Probability & Risk 2: 215-226.

Good, I. J. (1995). "When batterer turns murderer." Nature 375: 541.

Goodman, J. (1992). "Jurors’ Comprehension and Assessment of Probabilistic Evidence, ." American Journal of Trial Advocacy 16  361.

Goos, L. M., I. Silverman, D. Rose and J. Newman (2002). "The influence of probabilistic statements on the evaluation of the significance of a DNA match." Journal of the Canadian Society of Forensic Science 35(2): 77-90.

Green, P. (2002). Letter from the President to the Lord Chancellor regarding the use of statistical evidence in court cases, 23 January 2002. The Royal Statistical Society.

Halliwell, J., J. Keppens and Q. Shen (2003). "Linguistic Bayesian Networks for reasoning with subjective probabilities in forensic statistics." ICAIL '03: Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Artificial intelligence and law: 42-50.

Hamer, M. (1991). "Forensic science goes on trial." New Scientist 22.

Hand, D. (2011), 'Discussion of "Bayesian Models and Methods in Public Policy and Government Settings" by S. E. Feinberg', Statistical Science, 26(2), pp. 227-230.

Hatsch, D., C. Keyser, R. Hienne and L. Bertrand (2007). "Resolving paternity relationships using X-chromosome STRs and Bayesian networks." J Forensic Sci 52(4): 895-7.

Helman, P., R. Veroff, S. Atlas and C. Willman (2004). "A Bayesian network classification methodology for gene expression data." J Comput Biol 11(4): 581-615.

Hepler, A. B., A. P. Dawid and V. Leucari (2007). "Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence." Law, Probability & Risk 6(1-4): 275-293.

Hill, R. (2005). "Reflections on the cot death case." Significance 2(13-15).

Hodgson, D. (1995). "Probability: the Logic of the Law—a Response." Oxford J Legal Studies 15(1): 51-68.

Hunter, K., A new direction on DNA, in Criminal Law Review, 478-480, July. 1998.

Jackson, G. (2000). "The scientist and the Scales of Justice." Science and Justice 40(2): 81-85.

Jackson, G., S. Jones, et al. (2006). "The nature of forensic science opinion-a possible framework to guide thinking and practice in investigations and in court proceedings." Science and Justice 46(1): 33-44.

Jowett, C., Sittin' in the Dock with the Bayes, in New Law Journal Expert Witness Supplement of Feb 16. 2001.

Jowett, C. (2001). "Lies, Damned Lies, and DNA Statistics: DNA Match testing. Bayes' Theorem, and the Criminal Courts." Med Sci. Law 41(3): 194-205.

Joyce, H. (2002). "Beyond reasonable doubt." MathPlus 21.

Kaye, D. H. (1986). "The Admissibility of Probability Evidence in Criminal Trials (pt. 1)." The Journal of Law, Science, and Technology 26(4): 343-346.

Kaye, D. H. (1987). "The Admissibility of Probability Evidence in Criminal Trials (pt. 2)." The Journal of Law, Science, and Technology 27(2): 160-172.

Kaye, D. H. (1989). "The Probability of an Ultimate Issue: The Strange Cases of Paternity Testing." Iowa L. Rev 75(1): 75-109.

Kaye, D. H. (2001). "Two Fallacies About DNA Databanks for Law Enforcement." Brooklyn Law Review 67(1): 179-206.

Kaye, D. H. (2007 ). "Revisiting 'Dreyfus': A More Complete Account of a Trial by Mathematics." Minnesota Law Review 91(3): 825-835.

Kaye, D. H. (2008). "Case comment - People v Nelson: a tale of two statistics." Law, Probability & Risk 7: 249-257.

Kaye, D. H. (2009 ). "Identification, Individualization, Uniqueness." Law, Probability & Risk 8(2): 85-94.

Kaye, D. H., V. P. Hans, et al. (2007). "Statistics in the Jury Box: How Jurors Respond to Mitochondrial DNA Match Probabilities." Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 4(4): 797-834.

Kaye, D. H. and J. J. Koehler (1991). "Can Jurors Understand Probabilistic Evidence?" Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 154(1): 75-81.

Koehler, J. J. (1992).’ Probabilities in the Courtroom: An Evaluation of the Objections and Policies’ in Handbook of Psychology and Law. D. K. Kagehiro and W. S. Laufer. New York, Springer-Verlag: 167-184.

Koehler, J. J. (1993). "The Base Rate Fallacy Myth." Psycoloquy 4(49).

Koehler, J. J. (1993). "Error and Exaggeration in the Presentation of DNA Evidence at Trial." Jurimetrics 34: 21-39.

Kitchenham, B., S. Linkman and D. Law (1997). "DESMET: a methodology for evaluating software engineering methods and tools.", Computing & Control Engineering Journal 8, 120 

Krane, D. E., S. Ford, et al. (2008). "Sequential Unmasking: A Means of Minimizing Observer Effects in Forensic DNA Interpretation." J Forensic Sci 53(4): 1006-1007.

Kuhn, D. R. (1997). "Sources of failure in the public switched telephone network.", IEEE

Labarge, A. S., R. J. McCaffrey and T. A. Brown (2003). "Neuropsychologists’ abilities to determine the predictive value of diagnostic tests." Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology 18(2): 165-175.

Lam, S. K. and A. Owen (2007). "Combined resynchronisation and implantable defibrillator therapy in left ventricular dysfunction: Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials." BMJ.

Leader, L. and Schofield, D., Madness in the Method? Potential Pitfalls in Handling Expert Evidence Journal of Personal Injury Law, 2006. 6(1): p. 68 - 86.

Levitt, T. S. and K. B. Laskey (2000). "Computational Inference for Evidential Reasoning in Support of Judicial Proof." Cardozo Law Review 22: 1691-1731.

Lucy, D. and C. G. G. Aitken (2002 ). "A Review of the Role of Roster Data and Evidence of Attendance in Cases of Suspected Excess Deaths in a Medical Context." Law, Probability and Risk 1: 141-160.

Lucy, D. and B. Schaffer (2007). Nature of legal evidence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh. EH9 3JZ.

Matthews, R. (1994). "Improving the odds on justice." New Scientist 16 April 1994(1921): 12-13.

Matthews, R. (1995). "The Interrogator's Fallacy." Bulletin of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications 31 3-5.

Matthews, R. (1996). "Rape case ruling undermines faith in juries." New Scientist(2033): 7.

Matthews, R. (1997). "Tipping the scales of justice." New Scientist (2112): 18-19.

Matthews, R. A. J. (2004). "Inference with legal evidence: common sense is necessary but not sufficient " Med Sci Law 44(3): 189-192.

Meester, R., M. Collins, R. Gill and M. van Lambalgen (2007). "On the (ab)use of statistics in the legal case against the nurse Lucia de B." Law, Probability & Risk 5: 233-250.

Meester, R. and M. Sjerps (2004). "Why the Effect of Prior Odds Should Accompany the Likelihood Ratio When Reporting DNA Evidence." Law, Probability and Risk 3: 51-62.

Montironi, R., L. Diamanti, et al. (1997). "Subtle changes in benign tissue adjacent to prostate neoplasia detected with a Bayesian belief network." J Pathol 182(4): 442-9.

Morrison, G. S. (in press 2012). The likelihood-ratio framework and forensic evidence in court: A response to R v T. International Journal of Evidence and Proof, 16(1).

Morrison, G. S. (2010). Forensic voice comparison. In I. Freckelton, & H. Selby (Eds.),  Expert Evidence (Ch. 99). Sydney, Australia: Thomson Reuters. Stable URL: http://expert-evidence.forensic-voice-comparison.net

Morrison, G. S.(2009). Forensic voice comparison and the paradigm shift. Science & Justice, 49, 298–308.
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Morrison, G. S. (2011). Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems. Science & Justice, 51, 91–98

Morrison, M., W. McCluggage, et al. (2002). "Expert system support using a Bayesian belief network for the classification of endometrial hyperplasia." J Pathol 197(3): 403-14.

Mossman, D. (2000). "Interpreting clinical evidence of malingering: a Bayesian perspective." J Am Acad Psychiatry Law 28(3): 293-302.

Newton, A. C., G. B. Stewart, et al. (2007). "Bayesian Belief Networks as a tool for evidence-based conservation management." Journal for Nature Conservation 15(2): 144-160.

Nickerson, R.S., Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 1998. 2: p. 175-220.

Nikiforidis, G. and G. Sakellaropoulos (1998). "Expert system support using Bayesian belief networks in the prognosis of head-injured patients of the ICU." Med Inform (Lond) 23(1): 1-18.

Nobles, R. and D. Schiff (2005). "Misleading statistics within criminal trials: the Sally Clark case." Significance 2(1): 17-19.

Nouraei, S. A., Q. J. Huys, et al. (2007). "Screening patients with sensorineural hearing loss for vestibular schwannoma using a Bayesian classifier." Clin Otolaryngol 32(4): 248-54.

Nuemann, C., I. W. Evett and J. Skerrett (2011). "Quantifying the weight of evidence from a forensic fingerprint comparison: a new paradigm." J. Royal Statistical Soc A 175(2): 1-26.

Oatley, G. C. and B. W. Ewart (2003). "Crimes analysis software: ‘pins in maps’, clustering and Bayes net prediction." Expert Systems with Applications 25(4): 569-588.

Oh, M. M. (1997). "The Gateway for Successive Habeas Petitions: An Argument for Schlup v. Delo's Probability Standard for Actual Innocence Claims." Cardozo Law Review 19: 2341-2364.

Price, G. J., W. G. McCluggage, et al. (2003). "Computerized diagnostic decision support system for the classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions." Hum Pathol 34(11): 1193-203.

Puch, R. O. and J. Q. Smith (2002). FINDS: A Training Package to Assess Forensic Fibre Evidence. Proceedings of the Second Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence: Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Springer-Verlag: 420-429.

Rawling, P. (1999). "Reasonable doubt and the presumption of innocence: the case of the Bayesian juror." Topoi 18: 117-126.

Redmayne, M., DNA evidence, probability and the courts, in Criminal Law Review, 464. 1995

Redmayne, M. (2002). "The Relevance of Bad Character." Cambridge Law Journal 61(3): 684-714.

Redmayne, M. (2002). "Similar Facts, Familiar Obfuscation: "R v Handy"." International Journal of Evidence and Proof 6(4): 243-250.

Redmayne, “Doubts and Burdens: DNA Evidence, Proabability and the Courts” [1995] Crim.L.R. 464

Redmayne, M., P. Roberts, C. Aitken and G. Jackson (2011). "Forensic Science Evidence in Question." Criminal Law Review(5): 347-356.

Reed, C. and G. Rowe (2007). "A pluralist approach to argument diagramming." Law, Probability & Risk 6: 59-85.

Risinger, D. M. (2007). "Innocents Convicted: An Empirical Justified Factual Wrongful Conviction Rate Criminal Law." Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 97(3): 761-806.

Robertson, B. and G. A. Vignaux (1993). "Probability—The Logic of the Law." Oxford J Legal Studies 13(4): 457-478.

Robertson, B., G. A. Vignaux and C. E. H. Berger (2011). "Extending the confusion about Bayes." The Modern Law Review 74(3): 444-455.

Robertson, B. and Vignaux, T., Explaining Evidence Logically. New Law Journal, 1998. 148(6826): p. 159-162.  

Robertson, B. and Vignaux, T., Bayes' Theorem in the Court of Appeal. The Criminal Lawyer, 1997: p. 4-5.

Rossman, A. J. and T. H. Short (1995). "Conditional Probability and Education Reform: Are They Compatible?" Journal of Statistics Education 3(2).

Rossmo, D.K., Criminal investigative failures: avoiding the pitfalls. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Oct 2006., 2006. 

Rothman, K. J. and S. Greenland (2005). "Causation and causal inference in epidemiology." Am J Public Health 95 Suppl 1: S144-50.

Saini, A. (2009). "Probably guilty: Bad mathematics means rough justice " New Scientist 43: 43-45.

Sakellaropoulos, G. C. and G. C. Nikiforidis (1999). "Development of a Bayesian Network for the prognosis of head injuries using graphical model selection techniques." Methods Inf Med 38(1): 37-42.

Saks, M. J. and J. J. Koehler (2005). "The Coming Paradigm Shift in Forensic Identification Science." Science 309: 892.

Saks, M.J. & Koehler, J.J. (2008) The Individualization Fallacy in Forensic Science Evidence. Vanderbilt. Law Rev., 61, 199–219.

Saks, M. J. and S. L. Neufield (2011). "Convergent Evolution in Law and Science: The Structure of Decision-making Under Uncertainty." Law, Probability & Risk 10: 133-148.

Schum, D. (2009). 'A science of evidence: contributions from law and probability', Law Probability and Risk

Simon, C., P. Weber and E. Levrat (2007). "Bayesian Networks and Evidence Theory to Model Complex Systems." Reliability Journal of Computers 2(1): 33-43.

Steventon, B., Statistical Evidence and The Courts -- Recent Developments. Journal of Criminal Law, 1998. 67: p. 176-184.

Stiber, N., M. Small and M. Pantazidou (2004). "Site-specific updating and aggregation of Bayesian belief network models for multiple experts." Risk Anal 24(6): 1529-38.

Taroni, F. and Biedermann, A., Inadequacies of posterior probabilities for the assessment of scientific evidence, in Law Probablity and Risk 4: 89-114. 2005.

Taroni, F., Bozza, S., and Aitken, C., Decision Analysis in forensic science. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2005. 50: p. 894-905.

Taroni, F., Bozza, S., and Biedermann, A., Two items of evidence, no putative source: an inference problem in forensic intelligence. J Forensic Sci, 2006. 51(6): p. 1350-61.

Taroni, F., A. Biedermann, P. Garbolino and C. G. G. Aitken (2004). "A general approach to Bayesian networks for the interpretation of evidence." Forensic Science International 139(1): 5-16.

Thagart, P. (2003). "Why wasn't O.J. convicted? emotional coherence and legal inference." Cognition and Emotion 17(361-383).

Thompson, W.C. and Schumann, E.L., Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials. Law and Human Behavior, 1987. 11(3): p. 167-187.

Thompson, W. C. (1996). "DNA Evidence in the O.J. Simpson Trial." Colorado Law Review 67(4): 827-857.

Thompson, W. C., F. Taroni and C. G. G. Aitken (2003). "How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence." Journal of Forensic Sciences 48(1): 47-54.

Tillers, P. (2007). "Introduction: visualizing evidence and inference in legal settings." Law, Probability and Risk 6: 1-4.

Tribe, L. H. (1971). "Trial by Mathematics." Harvard Law Review 84: 1329.

Triggs, C. M. and J. S. Buckleton (2004). "Comment on: Why the effect of prior odds should accompany the likelihood ratio when reporting DNA evidence." Law, Probability and Risk 3: 73-82.

Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D., Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science & Justice:, 1974. 185: p. 1124-1131.

Van Gelder, D. (1983). "Examination of the Application of Bayes' Theorem to Trace Evidence Evaluation - The Criminalist's Perspective." Journal of Police Science and Administration 11(4): 377-384.

Verheij, B. (2007). "Argumentation Support Software: Boxes-and-Arrows and Beyond." Law, Probability & Risk 6: 187-208.

Vivarelli, F. and C. K. Williams (2001). "Comparing Bayesian neural network algorithms for classifying segmented outdoor images." Neural Netw 14(4-5): 427-37.

Waldmann, M. R. (2001). "Predictive versus diagnostic causal learning: evidence from an overshadowing paradigm." Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 8: 600-608.

Washington, S. and J. Oh (2006). "Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea." Accid Anal Prev 38(2): 234-47.

Watkins, S. J. (2000). "Editorial, Conviction by Mathematical Error? Doctors and Lawyers Should Get Probability Theory Right, ." BRIT. MED. J. 320 (7226)(2): 2-3.

Wigmore, J. H. (1913). "The problem of proof." Illinois Law Journal 8(2): 77-103.

Wilson, A. (2011), 'Away from the numbers: opinion in the Court of Appeal', The Journal of Criminal Law 75, 503-27.

 

Conference papers

Dawid, A. P., J. Mortera and P. Vicard (2006). Representing and solving complex DNA identification cases using Bayesian networks' in   A. Amorim, F. Corte-Real and N. Morling, Progress in Gsenetics 11: proceedings of the 21st international ISFG Congress held at, Ponta Delgada, The Azores, Portugal between 13 and 16 September 2005, International Congress Series, vol 1288  Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, 2006, 484-91.

Hepler, A. B. and B. S. Weir (2004). Using Bayesian Networks for Paternity Calculations: Adding an Evolutionary Perspective. JSM (Joint Statistical Meetings) 2004. Toronto, Canada

Huygen, P.E.M., Use of Bayesian Belief Networks in legal reasoning, in 17th BILETA Annual Conference. 2002: Free University, Amsterdam.

Keppens, J. (2011). On Extracting Arguments from Bayesian Network Representations of Evidential Reasoning. ICAIL ’11. Jun 06-10 2011, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, ACM.

Keppens, J. and J. Zeleznikow (2003). A Model Based Reasoning Approach for Generating Plausible Crime Scenarios from Evidence. ICAIL '03 Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Artificial intelligence and law June 24-28, 2003, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, ACM: 51-59.

Kwan, M., R. Overill, et al. (2011). Sensitivity Analysis of Digital Forensic Reasoning in Bayesian Network Models. Advances in Digital Forensics VII, Proc. 7th Annual IFIP WG 11.9 International Conference on Digital Forensics. Orlando, Florida, USA, 30 January - 2 February 2011, Springer

Overill , R E and Silomon, J A M , Six Simple Schemata for Approximating Bayesian Belief Networks, in Cyberforensics: Issues and Perspectives, Proc 1st International Conference on Cybercrime, Security and Digital Forensics (ed. GRS Weir), Glasgow, UK, 27-28 June 2011, pp.65–72

Puch, R. O. and J. Q. Smith (2002). FINDS: A Training Package to Assess Forensic Fibre Evidence. Proceedings of the Second Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence: Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Springer-Verlag: 420-429.

Robertson, B. and Vignaux, T., Don't teach Statistics to Lawyers!, in Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Teaching of Statistics. 1998: Singapore. p. 541-547.

Thompson, W. C. (2008). Painting the Target Around the Arrow: Misuse of Statistics to Characterize DNA Evidence. Seventh International Conference on Forensic Statistics, August 21-23, 2008. Lausanne, Switzerland


Unpublished Reports/Papers

Aitken, C.G.G., Conviction by Probability?, JBC-EDI-STA-RR-0015, 2004 Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics & Legal Reasoning.  http://www.cfslr.ed.ac.uk/publications/a015.pdf

Aitken, C.G.G., Statistical interpretation of evidence: Bayesian analysis, JBC-EDI-STA-RR-0001, 2004 Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics & Legal Reasoning. http://www.cfslr.ed.ac.uk/publications/a001.pdf

Aitken, C.G.G., Statistical Techniques and their Role in Evidence Interpretation, JBC-EDI-STA-RR-0003, 2004 Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics & Legal Reasoning.  http://www.cfslr.ed.ac.uk/publications/a003.pdf

Aitken, C., P. Roberts and G. Jackson (2010). Fundamentals of Probability and Statistical Evidence in Criminal Proceedings, Practitioner Guide No 1, Royal Statistical Society’s Working Group on Statistics and the Law.

Berger, C.E.H., Aben, D., Evidence and Conviction, 3 papers in: Expertise en Recht 2010, 3, 86-90, Expertise En Recht 2010, 5/6, 159-165

D'Agostini, Giulio, 'A defense of Columbo: (and of the use of Bayesian inference in forensics): a multilevel introduction to probabilistic reasoning (Sep 2010)  http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.2086

D'Agostini, Giulio, 'Probably a discovery: Bad mathematics means rough scientific communication', (Dec 2011),  http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3620

Dann, B. M., V. P. Hans and D. H. Kaye (2004). Testing the Effects of Selected Jury Trial Innovations on Juror Comprehension of Contested mtDNA Evidence.(US Dept of Justice unpublished report)

Devlin, K. (2007). Scientific heat about cold hits, Stanford University, http://www.stanford.edu/~kdevlin/Cold_Hit_Probabilities.pdf.

Ledward, J, 'Understanding forensic evidence: do lawyers and the judiciary understand forensic evidence and the Bayesian approach?', discussion paper, (2004) 

M.F. Theofanos and S.L. Pfleeger, “A Framework for Creating a Reuse Measurement Plan,” tech. report, 1231/D2, Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Data Systems Research and Development Division, Oak Ridge, Tenn., 1993.

Thompson, J., Danielson, S., Hartmann, E., Bucheger, D., Koplitz, D. (2000). Trial By Probability: Bayes' Theorem in Court http://www.uwstout.edu/mscs/upload/Trial-by-Probability.pdf


Unpublished Expert Reports
Dror, I.E., R vs Bellfield: Expert Report, 2007.

Fenton, N. E. (2007). Probabilistic Analysis of the Number Plate Evidence. Expert report for the Criminal Court in the case of R v Levi Bellfield.

Fenton, N. E. (2008). Probabilistic and Logical Fallacies in the Prosecution Opening. Expert Report for the Criminal Court in the case of R v Levi Bellfield.


Websites/ misc 

Fenton, N.E. Making Sense of Probability: Fallacies, Myths and Puzzles.  2007 

Robertson, B. and Vignaux, T. The Bayesian Evidence Page (2007)

"Ruling Casts Doubts On Infallibility Of Fingerprint Evidence" (2007) 

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