Models & Downloads

Monty Hall Dilemma

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.

You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Download this file (Monty Hall Dilemma.ast)Monty Hall Dilemma.ast[AgenaRisk model]140 kB

Model (basic): Burglar Alarm

Mr Holmes is working at his office when he received a telephone call from Watson who tells him that Holmes burglar alarm has gone off. Convinced that a burglar has broken into his house (alarm sounds -> burglary), Holmes rushes into his car and heads for home. On his way he listens to the radio, and in the news it is reported that there has been a small earthquake in the area (radio report -> earthquake). Knowing that the earthquake has a tendency to turn the burglar alarm on (earthquake -> alarm sounds), he returns to his work leaving his neighbours the pleasures of the noise. (Re-produced from Jensen 1996).

Download this file (Burglar Alarm.ast)Burglar Alarm.ast[Download AgenaRisk model]7 kB

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