Models & Downloads
Bayes-Knowledge Prototype Tool
This tool - which runs on AgenaRisk platform - is a prototype implementation of the various novel features of Bayes-Knowledge.
The following download options are available:
System Requirements and Installation Instructions are available for Windows, Mac and Linux.
The guide to Table Learning Functionality Implemented in AgenaRisk and relevant source files are also available.
AgenaRisk Free Version
All models below can be run with the free version of AgenaRisk software.
Monty Hall Dilemma
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.
You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Model (basic): Burglar Alarm
Mr Holmes is working at his office when he received a telephone call from Watson who tells him that Holmes burglar alarm has gone off. Convinced that a burglar has broken into his house (alarm sounds -> burglary), Holmes rushes into his car and heads for home. On his way he listens to the radio, and in the news it is reported that there has been a small earthquake in the area (radio report -> earthquake). Knowing that the earthquake has a tendency to turn the burglar alarm on (earthquake -> alarm sounds), he returns to his work leaving his neighbours the pleasures of the noise. (Re-produced from Jensen 1996).